The European Union's (EU) ambitious pursuit of a sustainable energy future, driven by the European Green Deal (EGD) and the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM), is unfolding amidst significant geopolitical and economic shifts. The urgency of this transition has been heightened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has brought issues of energy security, economic resilience, and climate policy into sharp focus. As the EU seeks to decarbonize its economy and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, this report explores the critical challenge posed by disinformation narratives that undermine the just sustainability transition (JST) across five European countries: Bulgaria, Poland, Sweden, Germany, and the Netherlands.

The report highlights that disinformation is not merely a peripheral concern but a central factor influencing public opinion and policy responses to JST. Both traditional and social media have emerged as pivotal arenas where competing narratives battle for dominance. Disinformation is strategically deployed by various actors—including political figures, media personalities, and interest groups with deep-seated economic interests—to create doubt, generate confusion, and resist the transformative changes necessitated by JST.

Across the case study regions, the disinformation narratives identified are varied yet share common themes. A recurring motif is the depiction of JST as a threat to economic stability and national sovereignty. In regions heavily dependent on carbon-intensive industries, such as coal mining or gas extraction, disinformation campaigns often portray the transition as an externally imposed agenda that ignores local socio-economic realities. These narrative leverages deep-rooted anxieties about job losses, community decline, and the erosion of cultural identities historically linked to these industries.

Additionally, these disinformation narratives frequently tap into a broader mistrust of governmental and supranational institutions. In countries like Bulgaria and Poland, where political discourse often reflects scepticism towards the European Union, disinformation narratives exploit and magnify these sentiments. The JST is framed not as a cooperative effort towards a sustainable future but as a coercive policy prioritizing distant environmental goals over immediate national interests. This perspective resonates strongly in regions where economic development has lagged, and the perceived benefits of EU membership are unevenly distributed.

In contrast, pro-JST narratives observed in this report emphasize the potential for economic diversification, environmental restoration, and social justice. These narratives underscore opportunities for job creation in emerging sectors, the improvement of public health through reduced pollution, and the imperative to address climate change for future generations. However, despite their positive outlook, these supportive narratives often struggle to gain visibility and traction compared to disinformation. The asymmetry in narrative dissemination is partly due to the emotional resonance of anti-transition rhetoric, which is deeply rooted in fear and uncertainty—potent drivers that can overshadow rational discourse.

The role of media in disseminating these narratives is crucial. Traditional media outlets, especially those with regional or national influence, significantly shape public discourse on JST through their editorial choices, framing of issues, and selection of expert voices. Concurrently, social media platforms have become critical spaces for the rapid spread of disinformation. The algorithms driving these platforms often prioritize sensational content, amplifying divisive and misleading narratives. The viral nature of social media ensures that even fringe disinformation can reach a wide audience, further complicating efforts to foster a balanced and fact-based discussion on JST.

The impact of these disinformation narratives on public participation is profound. In regions where anti-transition narratives prevail, public resistance to JST is more pronounced. This resistance manifests in various forms, from political opposition to grassroots movements challenging the legitimacy of transition policies. Least-engaged communities (LECs), often already marginalized by socio-economic factors, are particularly vulnerable to disinformation. The lack of access to reliable information, combined with pre-existing economic and social challenges, renders these communities more susceptible to the fear-based narratives opposing JST. Consequently, these communities may become disengaged from policy dialogues, less likely to adopt sustainable practices, and more resistant to the necessary changes for a successful transition.

Moreover, the uneven distribution of transition benefits and costs exacerbates social divides, fuelling narratives that the JST disproportionately burdens vulnerable communities. In regions where livelihoods are closely tied to fossil fuel industries, the transition is often viewed as a zero-sum game, where the gains of a sustainable future come at the cost of current economic security. Disinformation plays a crucial role in reinforcing this perception by amplifying concerns about economic decline, job losses, and social inequality. This not only hinders public support for JST but also poses significant challenges to policymakers who must balance environmental imperatives with socio-economic realities.

This report underscores the vital importance of addressing disinformation as a central component of the JST. Countering these pervasive narratives requires a comprehensive strategy, including transparent and consistent communication from policymakers, active involvement of local communities in the transition process, and the promotion of inclusive narratives that align with broader social and environmental justice goals. By fostering an informed and engaged public, the European Union can strengthen the resilience of its transition efforts, ensuring that the shift towards a sustainable future is both equitable and inclusive, leaving no region or community behind.

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This deliverable has been submitted to the European Commission and is awaiting approval.